Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Late Monday/Tuesday

The latest models continue to point towards a rather significant pattern chance across southeast Texas over the next 24-48 hours as a slow moving frontal boundary up across north Texas and associated mid level low move southeast. The 00z model run of the NAM and GFS still show some type of mesoscale convective system working its way southeast out of north/central Texas Monday night and into the northern sections of southeast Texas Tuesday morning. The models then develop widespread convection over the majority of the region during the day as moisture levels pool ahead of the 850mb trough axis which should be slowly moving south out of north Texas.

Thunderstorms will likely be very efficient heavy rain makers as precip water values are expected to be in the 2.2-2.5'' range, which is about 2 standard deviations above the normal for this time of year. Also, we will see a slow moving weak frontal boundary acting as a focus for the shower and thunderstorm activity along with a diffluence noted in the 300-250mb winds to help add additional lift.

Now, it is not certain where the heaviest rain will fall across the area, but it looks pretty good that some people in southeast Texas could see some drought busting rain during the late Monday through Wednesday time frame.