ECMWF takes the current tropical wave east of Cuba and strengthens it into a tropical storm to hit the tip of Florida in 168hr, intensifies over land (?) and continues across and hits the panhandle of Florida as hurricane around hour 216. Model agreement is medium for the GFS does not capture the system, however the CMC takes it into the Atlantic and away from the Gulf.
There is a tropical wave currently off of Africa and the GFS takes the system into the Gulf of Mexico as a very strong hurricane. HOWEVER, this forecast is 324 hours out and the GFS is not always reliable. We will have to watch the other models when they are available for those forecast hours, and monitor this system.
Just thought you guys would like to know!
- Monica
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