Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf Early Next Week

The quick formation and intensification of Hurricane Gustav as many people scrambling to get a handle on where he is expected to go next week as all the models and the official NHC track have him entering the gulf Saturday afternoon.

Right now the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models all depict a strong area of high pressure over the southeastern US early next week which would favor a more west-northwest movement of Gustav as he trecks into the central gulf Sunday. At this time the GFS is the only model I can find which still shows a weakness in the ridge over the central to eastern gulf Sunday through Tuesday. Should the mid-upper level pattern indeed turn out to favor the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET, then a western gulf landfall looks quite possible; however we are still a week out so look for the forecast to change a lot. Right now we will just have to wait and watch. By Saturday afternoon, we will likely have a better handel on where Gustav might end up making landfall.