Tropical storm watches are currently up for the upper Texas coastline from Port O'Connor, TX to Intercoastal City, LA. As of 5pm, the National Hurricane Center as the center of Tropical Storm Edouard located at 28.1N 88.0W or about 95 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River or about 420 miles southeast of Galveston, TX. The storm is moving west at 6mph with a continued west or west northwest motion expected until landfall along the upper Texas coast, around Freeport Tuesday morning. At this time the Hurricane center currently keeps the system as a strong tropical storm at landfall; however the GFDL model continues to forecast Edouard to become a Hurricane before landfall. With water temps in the upper 80s across the northwest Gulf, there is the potential for the storm to undergo significant strengthening over the next 24 hours as the current forecast track takes the storm into an area with much less shear aloft.
The forecast models in the past have shown a leftward bias towards landfalling western gulf storms, which means they tend to forecast landfall to the left of where the storms actually ends up hitting the coast. At this time it does look however that the NHC is taking that into close consideration in their track forecast.
Rainfall from this storm should be extremely beneficial for southeast Texas with the current forecast calling for 2-6 inches widespread with isolated 6-8 inches in some spots.
5pm Track Forecast
5pm Tropical Storm Wind Prob
GOES Shear Tendency
Model forecast
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