Gustav Update (Redeveloping south of Jamaica)

A lot of uncertainty remains in where Gustav will ultimately make landfall along the US Gulf coast. There is still a rather big spread beyond 48 hours with several of the so called "most reliable" models taking the far eastern extreme (MS/AL coast) and others taking the far western extreme (towards Corpus Christi). Below I will try and break down the possible senarios and what the models and NHC have said recently about Gustav.

So far today the storm's center redeveloped further south from its original location which caused a slight westward shift in both the model guidance and the official NHC track; however this evening we have seen another shift back to the east some 20 miles. Models are still having a hard time grasping a hold of a well defined center of circulation and therefore continue to be all over the place as far as possible landfall locations.

It looks like we will really start to get a better handle on where Gustav might end up going by tomorrow evening once the storm has a chance to get out over open waters and strengthen. The main forecast variable that will likely end up being the deciding player in where Gustav eventually ends up going will be a large ridge of high pressure located over the southeastern US. Current thinking from the NHC has Gustav getting caught up in a mid-level weakenss over the eastern gulf which will help curve the storm more to the right, towards the central LA coastline by late Monday or early Tuesday.

Something to watch closley over the next few days is that the models slow the storm down as it approaches the central LA coastline Monday. This is because Gustav will be runing up into the southwestern edge of the southeastern US high. If the storm slows down, it is possible that it could be pushed westward along the LA coast and into Texas.

On the otherhand, other models really develop a strong weakenss in the high which intern "pulls" the storm northeast and onshore somewhere near the Mississippi/Alabama coastline.

So needless to say, it is still too early to really start to narrow down where Gustav might make landfall. I will be out of town until Monday (so un, but it will be important for everyone to make sure they exersice there Hurricance precautions this weekend as Gustav is forecast to become a major Hurricane (Cat 3+) once he gets over the very warm waters in the gulf.

On one more out of order note...it will be interesting to see how our own MM5 model does once the storm gets closer to landfall since it only goes out 3 days.

Below are the two extremes between some of the more "reliable" models.

GFDL Output (Eastern Exreme)



HRWF Output (Western Extreme)



8pm NHC Update Track

Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf Early Next Week

The quick formation and intensification of Hurricane Gustav as many people scrambling to get a handle on where he is expected to go next week as all the models and the official NHC track have him entering the gulf Saturday afternoon.

Right now the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET models all depict a strong area of high pressure over the southeastern US early next week which would favor a more west-northwest movement of Gustav as he trecks into the central gulf Sunday. At this time the GFS is the only model I can find which still shows a weakness in the ridge over the central to eastern gulf Sunday through Tuesday. Should the mid-upper level pattern indeed turn out to favor the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET, then a western gulf landfall looks quite possible; however we are still a week out so look for the forecast to change a lot. Right now we will just have to wait and watch. By Saturday afternoon, we will likely have a better handel on where Gustav might end up making landfall.

Flooding Rains Possible Through Wednesday

A very fall like weather pattern will set up across southeast Texas this week and provide not only drought busting rains, but bring the potential for flooding through at least Wednesday. The upper level synoptic pattern will consist of a slow moving north Texas cut-off area of mid to upper level low pressure which will be moving slowly down across the state through Wednesday. Very good agreement exists among the computer models in depicting increasing diffluence aloft along with increasing lift through Monday evening. Several rounds of heavy thunderstorms look likely through mid week as vort max's rotate around the upper level low and get ejected across the region.

Flooding rains are looking more and more likely as models now forecast precip-water values to be close to topping the charts (near 2.3-2.5'') over the area which will lead to excessive rain rates under the convective activity. Of concern is the fact the models don't really show the low lifting out of the region until Friday which will allow for round after round to train over the area.

At this time the HPC (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) has the 1-5 day precip accumulations in the 4 inch range; however our local NWS would not be surprised to see those numbers increased by another 1-3 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The reason being, the extremely high precip-water values combined with the slow movement of the low.

This will be a situation that will need to be watched closley as we head through the week and flash flood watching might be issued at some point in time this week.

12z NAM- 19z Tuesday Forecast Sounding (Showing Saturated Profile)



HPC 5-Day Forecasted Precip-Accumulations


GFS Monday Precip-Water Forecast



GFS Precip Accumulations through Wednesday

2 tropical systems in the models

ECMWF takes the current tropical wave east of Cuba and strengthens it into a tropical storm to hit the tip of Florida in 168hr, intensifies over land (?) and continues across and hits the panhandle of Florida as hurricane around hour 216. Model agreement is medium for the GFS does not capture the system, however the CMC takes it into the Atlantic and away from the Gulf.

There is a tropical wave currently off of Africa and the GFS takes the system into the Gulf of Mexico as a very strong hurricane. HOWEVER, this forecast is 324 hours out and the GFS is not always reliable. We will have to watch the other models when they are available for those forecast hours, and monitor this system.

Just thought you guys would like to know!

- Monica

Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Late Monday/Tuesday

The latest models continue to point towards a rather significant pattern chance across southeast Texas over the next 24-48 hours as a slow moving frontal boundary up across north Texas and associated mid level low move southeast. The 00z model run of the NAM and GFS still show some type of mesoscale convective system working its way southeast out of north/central Texas Monday night and into the northern sections of southeast Texas Tuesday morning. The models then develop widespread convection over the majority of the region during the day as moisture levels pool ahead of the 850mb trough axis which should be slowly moving south out of north Texas.

Thunderstorms will likely be very efficient heavy rain makers as precip water values are expected to be in the 2.2-2.5'' range, which is about 2 standard deviations above the normal for this time of year. Also, we will see a slow moving weak frontal boundary acting as a focus for the shower and thunderstorm activity along with a diffluence noted in the 300-250mb winds to help add additional lift.

Now, it is not certain where the heaviest rain will fall across the area, but it looks pretty good that some people in southeast Texas could see some drought busting rain during the late Monday through Wednesday time frame.

Much Needed Rainfall from Edouard

Even though the center of circulation from tropical storm Edouard moved inland well to the east of where it was first forecast to make landfall, he still managed to produce some drought relieving rainfall across central and eastern sections of southeast Texas Tuesday. As a matter of fact, KIAH set a record for the date picking up 2.81'' which broke the old record of 2.65'' set back in 1994. A complete list of rainfall totals from around the region can be found below, along with the KHGX radar estimated storm total precip.

One item to note is that the Moody Tower H-Net site seems to be over estimating rainfall as it reported a little bit over 6'' from Edouard, while other official and non-official sites recorded rainfall in the 2-3 inch range. I archived the raw radar data files from KHGX for the entire event and will be going back over the data to see if it could have been a very small scale event; however I do not suspect that it was. Nicole and I will be running a calibration test on the gauge sometime over the next week or so and will post out findings. The other H-Net sites with the exception of UHCC (which we already know that is broken) gathered what looks to be very accurate rainfall data...matching up nicely with surrounding gauges and radar estimates.

Rainfall Data from Around Southeast Texas

HARRIS COUNTY -
BAYTOWN: BAYTOWN EOC..........................6.48 IN
SHELDON: SAN JACINTO RIVER AT BANANA BEND.....5.91 IN
PASADENA: BIG ISLAND SLOUGH AT FAIRMONT PKWY..5.75 IN
BAYTOWN: CEDAR BAYOU AT SH 146................5.27 IN
BAYTOWN: GOOSE CREEK AT SH 146................5.08 IN
BAYTOWN: GOOSE CREEK AT BAKER ROAD............3.51 IN
PASADENA: WILLOW SPRING AT FAIRMONT PARKWAY...5.08 IN
SHOREACRES: TAYLOR BAYOU AT SHOREACRES BLVD...4.73 IN
LA PORTE: LITTLE CEDAR BAYOU AT 8TH ST........4.49 IN
SHELDON: CARPENTERS BAYOU AT US HWY 90........4.49 IN
WALLISVILLE: CARPENTERS BAYOU AT WALLISVILLE..4.41 IN
E HOUSTON: I-10 AT NORMANDY...................4.41 IN
SAN JACINTO RIVER AT I-10 EAST................4.37 IN
HOUSTON: HOUSTON TRANSTAR.....................4.02 IN
FRED HARTMAN BRIDGE...........................4.01 IN
NE HOUSTON: GREENS BAYOU AT LEY ROAD..........3.90 IN
NE HOUSTON: GREENS BAYOU AT TIDWELL...........3.78 IN
NE HOUSTON: GREENS BAYOU AT MT HOUSTON PKWY...3.46 IN
SE HOUSTON: I-610 AT SHIP CHANNEL.............3.38 IN
PASADENA: BERRY BAYOU AT FOREST OAKS..........3.27 IN
NW HOUSTON: VOGEL CREEK AT VICTORY............3.19 IN
HOUSTON: BUFFALO BAYOU AT TURNING BASIN.......2.92 IN
WHITE OAK BAYOU AT FAIRBANKS-N HOUSTON........2.91 IN
HOUSTON: LITTLE WHITE OAK BAYOU AT TRIMBLE....2.88 IN
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT..............2.76 IN
ALDINE: GREENS BAYOU AT KNOBCREST.............2.68 IN
SPRING: CYPRESS LATERAL AT FM 1960............2.64 IN
SE HOUSTON: BEAMER DITCH AT HUGHES ROAD.......2.44 IN
SPRING: CYPRESS CREEK AT I-45.................2.41 IN
HOUSTON: RELIANT PARK.........................2.16 IN
MEDICAL CENTER: METRO RAIL AT FANNIN..........2.01 IN
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT.........................1.99 IN
TOMBALL: HOOKS AIRPORT........................1.80 IN
W HOUSTON: BUFFALO BAYOU AT DAIRY ASHFORD.....1.77 IN
JERSEY VILLAGE: LANGHAM CREEK/W LITTLE YORK...1.77 IN
MISSION BEND: BRAYS BAYOU AT SH 6.............1.18 IN
KATY: BUFFALO BAYOU AT US HWY 90..............0.55 IN

GALVESTON COUNTY -
KEMAH: SH 146.................................2.67 IN
LEAGUE CITY: CLEAR CREEK AT I-45..............2.01 IN
GALVESTON CAUSEWAY............................1.11 IN
BOLIVAR AT LOOP 108...........................0.86 IN
GALVESTON: SCHOLES FIELD......................0.58 IN

KHGX Storm Total Precip Graphic

2pm Harris County Rainfall

Note: Ignore the 43+ inch totals that several of the gauges are reporting, that is an error.

Edouard Inland, Heavy Rain Possible

Tropical storm Edouard has moved inland this morning across Chambers county and based on the latest radar imagery looks to be located around the Anahuac area moving off to the west-northwest around 15mph. So far the main impacts have been the rain with doppler radar estimating a swath of 2-5 inches has fallen across central/eastern Harris, northern Galveston, and most of Chambers counties this morning. Moderate to heavy rain continues to wrap around the circulation on Edouard across most of metro Houston and this trend should continue through the early afternoon. A break in the heavier rain may occur later this afternoon before additional convection will be possible this evening as the eastern side of the storm arrives. Currently the KHGX radar shows some very deep thunderstorm activity occurring over the gulf moving towards southeast Texas where wind gusts to 60mph have been measured.

As far as the winds are concerned, with the shift in track, Houston and most of the H-Net sites have seen winds in the 20-30mph range with higher gusts, especially down at UHCC and UHWL. Look for winds to continue out of the north and northwest for the next several hours, before swinging around to the south and increasing as the circulation moves off to the northwest of the metro area.

Latest Radar with NHC Track

10pm NHC Edouard Track Map

Latest track with the official NHC track overlaid. It is interesting to note the increase in convection around the storm. When I put the storm into motion, it actually looks like the center might be a bit south of where the NHC currently has it...maybe just my eyes playing tricks on me though.

Storm Update 10pm - Edouard Turns West-Northwest

Kind of a big update from the NHC with the center of Edouard redeveloping close to the new flare up of convection, slightly north of the previous center of circulation. This has caused the latest forecast track to be shifted up the coastline with the storm's center now expected to cross the coast around High Island, a good shift east from the 7pm position.

This will be something to watch closely to see if a further shift up the coast occurs through the night. If this trend were to continue, we would likely see much less of an impact here in Houston since the storm remains rather small and unorganized with all of the convection on the north and east side of the system. Also note that the advisory has no 60 mph wind west of the center at landfall, only in the NE quadrant in the heavy squalls. Barely TS wind in SW-NW part of storm, if that. So, it is possible that Houston might only see an inch or two of rain as Edouard moves inland and we will have to wait until his circulation moves northwest of the city in order to see some feeder bands set up and possibly give us some more substantial rainfall. Again, this is assuming the storm doesn't start to produce more significant convection around the western side of the circulation. The latest radar and satellite imagery does show a flare up of storms on the northern side which is trying to wrap around to the west.

Here is the latest public advisory from the NHC and I will post the latest Hurricane Local Statement from the National Weather Service when it becomes available around 11pm.

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
1000 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

...EDOUARD STRENGTHENS AND TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE WESTWARD
TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 160 MILES...
260 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE
UPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
EDOUARD IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.  SEVERAL ELEVATED OIL RIGS SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST HAVE BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES.  ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N...92.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

10pm NHC Track

Tropical Storm Edouard 7pm Update

Edouard continues to get better organized this afternoon with new convection developing around the low level circulation. There has been some misconceptions this afternoon that the storm is taking a "jog" to the north but it looks like its the rain bands moving north which is giving the illusion that the storm is moving north. This will be something that I will be watching however there have been no indications that this is occurring.

The latest GOES-East Shear Analysis shows little to no shear over and ahead of the system, along with very warm sea surface temperatures which favor a strengthening system; however since Edouard remains close to land, he has been pulling in some of the dry continental air at the mid-levels which could be one of the reasons why we haven't see a significant increase in strength yet. The continued slower forward speed is something to be watched as well since this would also favor a strengthening system as it will have more time to spin over water. The latest forecast from the hurricane center has slowed the arrival of Edouard by about 4 hours with a landfall around Galveston Island by noon tomorrow possibly as a cat 1 Hurricane.

Below is a threat outline that I was given by a friend from Impact Weather who has 20 years of tropical experience here in Houston.

"I've busy forecasting the storm from 4am until 5:30pm today. I think it may just reach 75-80 mph at landfall, but hurricane force winds should remain offshore. For central Houston, we could be looking at occasional sustained winds in the 45-55 mph range from 10-11AM until late afternoon. There will be peaks and lulls, the wind won't always be that high. Gusts may reach 20 mph higher, or near hurricane force in central and southwest/west Houston. Closer to the coast, winds on Galveston and across Texas City, League City, etc., may reach 55-65 mph sustained with gusts 80-90 mph.

Rainfall on the order of 4-6 inches will be widespread, with totals over 10 inches in some areas.

Surge into Galveston Bay won't be too bad, given the very small area of high winds, perhaps 3-5 feet.

I'll be at work all day tomorrow riding it out. At least we have a generator and the AC is on generator power. I expect much of Houston will lose power tomorrow for a period from a few hours to a few days. We can be thankful this will just be a taste of tropical storm winds (considerably stronger than what we saw with Rita) and not hurricane-force winds through"

August 4, Edouard 1 pm update

A VARIETY OF WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF EDOUARD IS THE MAIN
ISSUE...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TO INDICATE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z AT BOTH KCLL AND KUTS. THINK
THAT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
KEEP THE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE NIL INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE NHC FORECAST.

ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC...WINDS FROM EDOUARD
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KGLS AND KLBX BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING AT THOSE TWO SITES AND KHOU
AFTER 09Z. THE CURRENT FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER OF THE STORM OVER
BOTH SITES DURING THE MID MORNING PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSGR BY AROUND 15Z. KIAH MAY NOT EXPERIENCE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS UNTIL TOWARD MIDDAY.

Tropical Storm Edouard Threat Update 7am

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OR MARINE

AREAS:CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...LIBERTY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

MOST MOBILE HOMES WILL EXPERIENCE MODERATE DAMAGE. SOME OF POOR CONSTRUCTION WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...ANDGUTTERS. SOME WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. UNFASTENED HOME ITEMS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE WEIGHT WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. DOZENS OF WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WILL AFFECT ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS.MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND ROTTING SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSSCOASTAL AREAS OF BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERTY AND EASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE TUESDAYDURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS

....INLAND FLOODING...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONGAND NEAR THE TRACK OF EDOUARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS

....TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THE TROPICAL STORM APPROACHES AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE.THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTOTHE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

10pm Edouard Threat Update

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS SOUTHERN LIBERTY AND EASTERN HARRIS COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE TUESDAY
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. COASTAL MATAGORDA
COUNTY CAN EXPECT TO SEE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 35 TO 40 MPH. JACKSON COUNTY WILL ONLY SEE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS IF THE TRACK OF EDOUARD SHIFTS SOUTH...OR IF
EDOUARD STRENGTHENS TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NEAR THE TRACK OF EDOUARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THE TROPICAL STORM
APPROACHES AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

Tropical Storm Edouard 10pm Update

Not much change in the latest update with 00z models remaining in very good agreement for an upper Texas coast landfall Tuesday. There has been little change in the overall strength of the system but conditions should become more favorable for strengthening to occur over the next 24 hours and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Port O'Connor to Intercoastal City, LA which means Hurricane conditions are possible within in the next 36 hours.

Interestingly enough the BAMS model, which managed to correctly forecast the movement of Hurricane Rita back in 2005 continues to bring the system into or just south of Galveston Tuesday afternoon, so it will be interesting to watch is performance over the course of the next few days.

Tropical Storm Edouard 7pm Update : Threat to Houston

This is the latest word from the NWS as to what to expect if Edouard follows the 7pm update from the NHC. Again, if Edouard continues to strengthen faster than expected, then this forecast will have to be updated to increase the sustained winds.

...WINDS...

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS OF BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...AND CHAMBERS
COUNTIES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ACROSS LIBERTY...HARRIS...JACKSON...AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 40 TO 55 MPH RANGE.

...INLAND FLOODING...

AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE 6
TO 8 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLOODING PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...

TORNADOES WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS THE TROPICAL STORM
APPROACHES AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COASTLINE.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

5th Tropical Storm of the Season Threatens Houston

Tropical storm watches are currently up for the upper Texas coastline from Port O'Connor, TX to Intercoastal City, LA. As of 5pm, the National Hurricane Center as the center of Tropical Storm Edouard located at 28.1N 88.0W or about 95 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River or about 420 miles southeast of Galveston, TX. The storm is moving west at 6mph with a continued west or west northwest motion expected until landfall along the upper Texas coast, around Freeport Tuesday morning. At this time the Hurricane center currently keeps the system as a strong tropical storm at landfall; however the GFDL model continues to forecast Edouard to become a Hurricane before landfall. With water temps in the upper 80s across the northwest Gulf, there is the potential for the storm to undergo significant strengthening over the next 24 hours as the current forecast track takes the storm into an area with much less shear aloft.

The forecast models in the past have shown a leftward bias towards landfalling western gulf storms, which means they tend to forecast landfall to the left of where the storms actually ends up hitting the coast. At this time it does look however that the NHC is taking that into close consideration in their track forecast.

Rainfall from this storm should be extremely beneficial for southeast Texas with the current forecast calling for 2-6 inches widespread with isolated 6-8 inches in some spots.

5pm Track Forecast



5pm Tropical Storm Wind Prob



GOES Shear Tendency



Model forecast