Dolly Update 1 / Hou Forecast

Quick update this morning on Dolly. The 6am update shows dolly about 55 miles east of Brownsville, TX moving off to the northwest around 8mph. She is currently forecast to make landfall around noon just north of Brownsville as a strong Cat 1 or possibly Cat 2 hurricane. The latest surface obs from south Texas show tropical storm force winds already moving onshore with strong rain bands now moving into south Texas. See below for a very impressive radar display of the storm.

Locally, we have already seen one heavy band of thunderstorms associated with Dolly move across the city this morning with UHMT H-Net site picking up around 1.25'' of rain in just less than an hours time. The 11z RUC-2 model shows some very impressive precip-water values (2.2-2.4'') already in place over southern and central sections of southeast Texas with a lot more poised to move in during the day on a strong 20-30kt low level jet. The latest radar imagery shows a lot more activity out over the gulf which will likely move across the area through the day. Right now it looks like most areas should pick up about 1-2 inches of rain with some spots seeing 2-5'' where training develops.

As far as winds are concerned, it still looks like my previous forecast will hold up rather well today. We will see stronger winds in the rain bands as UHMT reported winds up to 25mph as this mornings band moved through. We will likely see winds pick up into the 10-20mph range later this morning as the sun comes up and helps to mix down some of the strong winds just above the surface.

KBRO Reflectivity (7:28am)



11z RUC-2 Precip-Water



11z RUC-2 850mb winds/ Td