Dolly Update 2 / Hou Forecast Discussion

The 12pm update from the NHC and latest radar imagery show that center Dolly has pretty much come to a halt over south Padre Island with a slight drift to the northwest. Most of the ASOS sites near the center have lost power, but the last reading (11:31am) from Port Isabel had northeast winds at 54mph gusting to 70mph with a peak gust of 72mph. Look for the storm to resume a northwest motion around 7mph in a couple of hours.

Locally, Houston has been in between two developing feeder bands, one located across Brazoria county with the other extending from southwest LA, west/northwest across Beaumont, central Liberty county, and back towards KIAH. So far rainfall has been rather light; however a lot of moisture will continue to stream northward out of the gulf over the next 24-36 hours as Dolly slowly moves inland across south Texas. As we head into the afternoon look for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across areas north of I-10 as temps warm towards our convective temps. With precip-water values expected to remain in the 2.2-2.4'' range this afternoon and overnight, any of the stronger storms will have the potential for putting down 2-3 inches of rain per hour, therefore if we see training develop, some areas could experience some urban flooding problems.

As far as the winds are concerned, my forecast from last night looks to be holding up pretty well with winds at UHMT this afternoon in the 15-25mph range and the RASS profiler at UHCC showing east winds at 20-25mph with 40mph winds (35kts) around 1km. Look for these breezy conditions to continue through the afternoon as the pressure gradient remains tight around Dolly's circulation. As she moves inland this afternoon, look for winds to slowly die down through the evening.

KBRO Reflectivity



KHGX Reflectivity