Hurricane Dolly

The latest (7pm intermediate) advisory on Dolly continues to show that the storm has strengthened little since this afternoon, with max sustained winds still clocked 75mph or minimal Cat 1 strength. The storm does look rather impressive on the KBRO radar display with a nicely defined northwest eye wall (See below for image) and some strengthening is possible before landfall tomorrow morning.The early cycle 00z model track guidance is in somewhat better agreement than the 18z run with the models very tightly packed now along the northern Mexican/far southern Texas coastline. The NAM and HWRF look to continue to be the outliers and continue to show the storm making landfall much further north, over Corpus Christi. This is likely because they want to stall the storm out later tonight just off the Texas coastline which would help pull it further north around a retreating area of high pressure. This however looks unlikely as Dolly continues to remain on a steady path to the northwest at 11mph.

Locally, we have seen rather breezy conditions this afternoon across Houston and surrounding areas as the pressure gradient tightens up across the region. With the storm expected to make landfall well south of the area, I would expect to see winds calm down a bit overnight with 10-15mph winds prevailing, especially along the coast. Tomorrow we should see winds pick back up into the 15-20mph range with higher gusts, especially if we manage to see any outer squalls from Dolly work there way onshore. The main threat from the Hurricane will be the potential for some locally heavy rainfall late tonight along the coast and then spreading inland during the morning. As we have seen this evening, storm motions will remain rather quick, so it will take training of the rain bands to get any significant rainfall amounts. Thursday could remain active as deep tropical moisture will remain over the area; however by Friday another ridge of high pressure will build in from the north and set the stage for a hot and relatively dry weekend.

H-Net Wind Forecasts

UHMT: Tonight 10-15mph
Wednesday: 15-25mph
UHCC: Tonight: 15-20mph
Wednesday: 20-25mph

KBRO Radar Display (9:54pm) Reflectivity



KBRO Radar Display (9:54pm) Base Velocity



Early Track 00z Model Guidance



18z Model's