Tropical Storm Edouard 7pm Update

Edouard continues to get better organized this afternoon with new convection developing around the low level circulation. There has been some misconceptions this afternoon that the storm is taking a "jog" to the north but it looks like its the rain bands moving north which is giving the illusion that the storm is moving north. This will be something that I will be watching however there have been no indications that this is occurring.

The latest GOES-East Shear Analysis shows little to no shear over and ahead of the system, along with very warm sea surface temperatures which favor a strengthening system; however since Edouard remains close to land, he has been pulling in some of the dry continental air at the mid-levels which could be one of the reasons why we haven't see a significant increase in strength yet. The continued slower forward speed is something to be watched as well since this would also favor a strengthening system as it will have more time to spin over water. The latest forecast from the hurricane center has slowed the arrival of Edouard by about 4 hours with a landfall around Galveston Island by noon tomorrow possibly as a cat 1 Hurricane.

Below is a threat outline that I was given by a friend from Impact Weather who has 20 years of tropical experience here in Houston.

"I've busy forecasting the storm from 4am until 5:30pm today. I think it may just reach 75-80 mph at landfall, but hurricane force winds should remain offshore. For central Houston, we could be looking at occasional sustained winds in the 45-55 mph range from 10-11AM until late afternoon. There will be peaks and lulls, the wind won't always be that high. Gusts may reach 20 mph higher, or near hurricane force in central and southwest/west Houston. Closer to the coast, winds on Galveston and across Texas City, League City, etc., may reach 55-65 mph sustained with gusts 80-90 mph.

Rainfall on the order of 4-6 inches will be widespread, with totals over 10 inches in some areas.

Surge into Galveston Bay won't be too bad, given the very small area of high winds, perhaps 3-5 feet.

I'll be at work all day tomorrow riding it out. At least we have a generator and the AC is on generator power. I expect much of Houston will lose power tomorrow for a period from a few hours to a few days. We can be thankful this will just be a taste of tropical storm winds (considerably stronger than what we saw with Rita) and not hurricane-force winds through"