The main player which will determine Ike's eventual movement and landfall location will be a developing west coast trough which is forecast by models to eject eastward across the US by mid-week. The hope for us was that this trough would eject a bit faster and deeper and therefore turn Ike off to the north sooner, taking the system off to our east. However, the last day and a half of model runs suggest that this feature might not have any impact on Ike's movement at all since it looks like it could remain too far to the north and rather weak. Now it is important to note, that there could be additional significant changes in Ike's track depending upon how he interacts with Cuba over the next 24-36 hours.
The intensity forecast remains the most uncertain, especially since it is getting ready to move over Cuba and will undergo some significant weakening on the current NHC forecast track. The storm is expected to emerge out in the southeast Gulf Tuesday evening and slowly regain major Hurricane status by 2pm Friday. Therefore, all southeast Texas residents need to review their hurricane preparation plans and get ready to take action later on in the week, should there be little change to the current forecast track.
Below is an upate from the pro Met here in Houston and a look at the latest Track and IR Sat imagery.
Update from Pro Met Jeff Linder
Large and dangerous hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico the end of this week. State of Texas began their 120 hour count down for impact of a major hurricane on the TX coast today at 1100am. H-72: 1100am Tuesday H-36: 1100pm Wednesday H-0: 1100am Friday Full activation of the State Operations Center at 800am Monday. Large scale evacuations along the entire TX coast and full scale contra-flow operations will be possible this week given the current NHC forecast track. TX residents need to review their hurricane preparation plans and be fully ready to enact these plans this week. Residents in coastal storm surge evacuation zones need to review evacuation routes and be fully ready to leave this week if ordered to do so. Ike Update: Powerful hurricane bearing down on eastern Cuba. Recon. suggest double wind maximum suggesting Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. There is not enough time for Ike to complete this cycle before is crosses the Cuban coast. Track: Nearly all global models except for the HWRF suggest the NW Gulf of Mexico will now be threatened by Ike. There is just not enough of a weakness... to turn the hurricane to our east...and it will round the southern side of the high building over the SC states and aim at the NW Gulf of Mexico. The guidance is fairly well clustered when the HWRF is tossed out and it is now fully expected that Ike will not be captured by the US E coast trough and will be a problem for TX and LA. Intensity: It appears we will be facing a major hurricane a some point in the Gulf of Mexico. The intensity is more uncertain than the track given the interaction with Cuba and what shape the inner core will be in once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC is forecasting Ike to gradually rebuild its inner core and regain major hurricane status in the central Gulf of Mexico. Past experience has shown that once an inner core is destroyed it does take a while for it to rebuild...we shall see. Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field.
8pm NHC Forecast Track
18z Model Guidance
Latest IR Sat Imagery
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