The models which were south of Corpus look to have shifted back north towards the rest of the model guidance with the UKMET model still north of Matagorda Bay. We won't be able to take a look at the 12z ECMWF until noon or so, but unless Ike makes an unexpected change in its current track, then I would not expect to see much change when compared to the 00z (Which I analyzed in my previous post).
I will continue to keep the forecast track I made yesterday which brings the center of Ike onshore through or just north of Matagorda Bay. I would expect to not see much change in the current NHC track at the 10am update; however a slight shift north is possible, given the latest model runs and slower forward speed of Ike seen over the past couple of hours.
12z Models
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html
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