Ike Prelim Radar Analysis

Now that power has finally been restored to my house, I have had the opportunity to download all of the raw level2 radar data from the hurricane. After driving around for only about 10 min and looking at the damage left by the storm, I started to notice some interesting patterns in the damage. You would see streets where most of the homes received light to moderate roof damage right next to other streets that received little to no roof damage. As was the case on my street, this pattern was played out on a more local level, where my neighbors house had significant roof damage while I managed to only lose a couple of shingles.

This type of pattern suggested that there were likley strong localized downburst events within the western eye wall which was characterized by unusually deep convection while it moved across the central and western sections of the Houston metro areas. Below are some prelim findings from analyzing some of the 88D radar data.

The screen shots below illustrate the local wind maxima (brighter blue streaks in the base velocity data) which occured throughout the western sections of Ike.

Post Ike

Well, it looks like this was not another Rita as most of the region remains without power and is still cleaning up the mess left behind by the first "major" hurricane to hit the Houston/Galveston area in 25 years. Once my house gets electricity back, I will begin an extensive post storm research project and will post any interesting results I find. 

Rita Repeat?

This is a link to the RITA Graphics Archive.  The way Ike's track is moving looks very similar to what Rita did in 2005. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

This is the archive of the Ike Graphics

Ike_Graphics

The tracks do differ slightly.  I don't believe Ike will make it as far as Louisiana, but it may continue to put farther up the coast.

Hurricane Ike - Intensity Discussion - 9am Wednesday

Ike continues to look better and better on the latest IR satellite imagery this morning. The NOAA plane had an extrapolated pressure of 955 mb when it made a pass through the center at 13Z. Even though the pressures are down, we continue to wait for the winds to catch up. Ambient pressures throughout the outer portions of the storm are also rather low, therefore not creating a very tight pressure gradient as of yet, which maybe one of the reasons why we haven't see a substantial increase in the winds yet; however as convection continues to increase around the center of circulation, we should see the pressures rise and wind speeds in the outer bands come down and that will allow for the storm to really start to pick up steam.

It also looks like Ike will pass over some very warm loop currents in the southern gulf as he moves off to the northwest or west-northwest over the next 24 hours or so, which also favors significant strengthening.

It will be interesting to see what the winds are during the 10am update, although we might not really start to see Ike take off until this evening.

12z Model Update - Hurricane Ike

The models which were south of Corpus look to have shifted back north towards the rest of the model guidance with the UKMET model still north of Matagorda Bay. We won't be able to take a look at the 12z ECMWF until noon or so, but unless Ike makes an unexpected change in its current track, then I would not expect to see much change when compared to the 00z (Which I analyzed in my previous post).

I will continue to keep the forecast track I made yesterday which brings the center of Ike onshore through or just north of Matagorda Bay. I would expect to not see much change in the current NHC track at the 10am update; however a slight shift north is possible, given the latest model runs and slower forward speed of Ike seen over the past couple of hours.

12z Models
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html

Ike Update - 8am Wednesday

The latest update on Ike as of 8am has the storm still at category 1 strength moving northwest at 8mph. The latest satellite imagery shows lots of central dense overcast around the center which would tend to suggest that Ike is getting ready to really start to strengthen. Right now Ike is currently forecast by the NHC to make landfall along the middle or upper Texas coast as a major cat 3 or cat 4 hurricane late Friday or early Saturday morning.

Below is a summary of a convo I had last night with a good friend and 30 year seasoned tropical forecaster here in Houston...

I am concerned that county officials are not taking this storm seriously. We are looking at a setup almost identical to Rita in 2005 and there does not seem to be much concern. Rita was forecast to hit on Saturday morning like Ike, but on the Wednesday before Rita was to hit near or just south of Matagorda Bay, we were already in full evacuation.

Mean while the people near the TX/LA border were thankful that the storm was forecast to hit well down the coast from them.

Ike is very likely going to be a Cat 3-4 when it hits the mid (or upper) Texas coast early Saturday morning. It's size means that squalls will begin impacting the upper to middle coast Friday morning. That leaves only today and tomorrow for evacuations. I can tell you this, if Ike deviates from the forecast track then it's far more likely to move inland north of the current projection than south. And only a TINY shift in timing of the turn, and a shift to the east side of Matagorda Bay, will mean a potential catastrophe here in the Houston-Galveston area.

If I lived in a surge zone near Galveston Bay I'd be prepared to leave and I'd get out before the hasty evacuation is called for tomorrow. Maybe we'll get lucky and NOW the forecast track is perfect. Yeah, maybe. But if the forecast is wrong, then we are looking at a very serious situation.
Again, we won't know for sure Ike isn't going to make a direct hit on Freeport/Galveston until during the day on Friday. We won't know today, we won't really know for sure tomorrow either.

I sure hope the current forecast is dead on, but I fear it isn't. Statistics over the past 10 years (from a study by Lance Wood at the Houston/Galveston NWS) show that 74% of the time, in the Gulf, the hurricanes track right of the forecast track.

Ok, back to the data...

The 00z models continue to be in good agreement in a landfall just south of Matagorda Bay, somewhere between Corpus and Rockport; however the ECMWF has actually shifted up to just north of Matagorda Bay. This would be a good model to watch as it has an excellent track history of being able to capture the long term synoptic scale motions and I would put a good bit of weight behind this model...something that the NHC has been doing recently.

What is concerning is that Ike is currently moving a couple hours slower than the forecast track...something that will be needed in order to see that northerly turn prior to landfall. If this trend continues then we could see models possibly try and shift further up the coast. Again, it is still a bit early to really boost confidence in any one scenario, but this will be a trend worth watching.

Early 00z Guidance - Hurricane Ike

Below is some very early 00z numerical guidance....look for another update around 10pm once all the models complete there runs.

Major Hurricane Ike - Possible NW Gulf Threat

Once again, it looks like the northwestern Gulf could potentially be threatened by yet another potentially major hurricane towards the end of the week. Since yesterday all of the model guidance along with the official NHC track has shifted westward (towards the Texas coast) as it looks like Ike will not be impacted by the eastern US trough left in the wake of Hanna.

The main player which will determine Ike's eventual movement and landfall location will be a developing west coast trough which is forecast by models to eject eastward across the US by mid-week. The hope for us was that this trough would eject a bit faster and deeper and therefore turn Ike off to the north sooner, taking the system off to our east. However, the last day and a half of model runs suggest that this feature might not have any impact on Ike's movement at all since it looks like it could remain too far to the north and rather weak. Now it is important to note, that there could be additional significant changes in Ike's track depending upon how he interacts with Cuba over the next 24-36 hours.

The intensity forecast remains the most uncertain, especially since it is getting ready to move over Cuba and will undergo some significant weakening on the current NHC forecast track. The storm is expected to emerge out in the southeast Gulf Tuesday evening and slowly regain major Hurricane status by 2pm Friday. Therefore, all southeast Texas residents need to review their hurricane preparation plans and get ready to take action later on in the week, should there be little change to the current forecast track.

Below is an upate from the pro Met here in Houston and a look at the latest Track and IR Sat imagery.

Update from Pro Met Jeff Linder
Large and dangerous hurricane forecast in the NW Gulf of Mexico the end of this week. State of Texas began their 120 hour count down for impact of a major hurricane on the TX coast today at 1100am. H-72: 1100am Tuesday H-36: 1100pm Wednesday H-0: 1100am Friday Full activation of the State Operations Center at 800am Monday. Large scale evacuations along the entire TX coast and full scale contra-flow operations will be possible this week given the current NHC forecast track. TX residents need to review their hurricane preparation plans and be fully ready to enact these plans this week. Residents in coastal storm surge evacuation zones need to review evacuation routes and be fully ready to leave this week if ordered to do so. Ike Update: Powerful hurricane bearing down on eastern Cuba. Recon. suggest double wind maximum suggesting Ike is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. There is not enough time for Ike to complete this cycle before is crosses the Cuban coast. Track: Nearly all global models except for the HWRF suggest the NW Gulf of Mexico will now be threatened by Ike. There is just not enough of a weakness... to turn the hurricane to our east...and it will round the southern side of the high building over the SC states and aim at the NW Gulf of Mexico. The guidance is fairly well clustered when the HWRF is tossed out and it is now fully expected that Ike will not be captured by the US E coast trough and will be a problem for TX and LA. Intensity: It appears we will be facing a major hurricane a some point in the Gulf of Mexico. The intensity is more uncertain than the track given the interaction with Cuba and what shape the inner core will be in once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. NHC is forecasting Ike to gradually rebuild its inner core and regain major hurricane status in the central Gulf of Mexico. Past experience has shown that once an inner core is destroyed it does take a while for it to rebuild...we shall see. Also of note...Ike will become a very large hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico likely expanding in size to nearly the entire Gulf as the interaction with Cuba broadens the wind field.

8pm NHC Forecast Track



18z Model Guidance



Latest IR Sat Imagery