Weak front and remnants of TD 5 organize in northern Gulf

Latest surface analysis this morning indicates a very weak frontal boundary (more like a wind shift line) is currently located across north Texas between Dallas and Waco. It is looking like the Texas end of the boundary is pulling up stationary and will likely start to wash out later this afternoon and evening. Surface winds across southeast Texas are out of the west and northwest in agreement with the GFS model which indicates that we will continue to see winds veer around to the northeast and east by late afternoon.

Morning and model soundings show that the atmosphere across the region is extremely moist and unstable with precip water values in the 2.2 - 2.3'' range, a K-index around 40 (numbers above 30 would tend to indicate scattered to numerous convection), and convective temps in the lower 90s. The only fly in the ointment for some cooling rain would be some capping indicated in the GFS model soundings for this afternoon. The isolated showers that developed earlier this morning across Montgomery county and eastern Harris county look to have been associated with an outflow boundary from convection in Louisiana. I would expect at least some scattered shower and thunderstorm activity around the area this afternoon as temps warm into the lower to mid 90s. Soundings do indicate a slight chance for some strong winds under the stronger storms that can manage to develop.

Of greater interest is the remnant low from TD 5 which is now out over open water south of the Pensacola, FL/Mobile, Al area. The latest tropical weather outlook from NHC gives the system a 60 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours or so. At this time the 00z hurricane models show the system moving into southern or southeastern Louisiana around the middle of the week. Morning visible satellite imagery shows some possible banding features taking shape to the north of the center of circulation...possibly an indication that the low will start trying to wrap up over the next few hours or so. A hurricane hunter aircraft is currently scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Should something develop today, look for an update to the blog. At this time it looks like effects on our local weather from this low will be minimal, however that could change quickly with just a small adjustment in the track westward so this will be something to watch very closely over the next day or so.

Surface map showing gulf Low, Satellite imagery, and 12z Model Tracks